New Positions Opened in NVTL and ABB

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Even in a down market, there are equities that are worth investing in.  We found two equities that we opened positions in yesterday.

First up was Novatel Wireless (NVTL).  You probably have seen the commercials from Sprint that highlight one of Novatel's products. 



An article in Barron's highlighted the earnings pop that this could create for Novatel.  The article, which said that Novatel's MiFI "is likely to be one of the hottest selling gadgets over the next few months," predicted "an Olympian boost to profit."  MiFi was launched at the CTIA wireless industry trade show in May and won the "hottest mobile device" award there.  Awards are nice, but it's followed tha
t with impressive sales.

Earnings estimates for 2009 are for a profit of $0.29 per share, up from a loss of $0.04 in the prior year.  For 2010, with the boost from MiFI, profits are expected to soar by 45 percent to $0.51.
Novatel Wireless

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However, some analysts say even that impressive pop may be too low.  One analyst says that since wireless service providers are seeing saturation in the voice side of the market, they will make a push into the data side of the market.  Thus, they expect that market penetration for data services will jump from 15 percent of the market to about 25 percent of the market.

The result, according to Avondale Partners, will be a huge jump in Novatel's profits.  Instead of climbing to $0.51, they will jump to at least $0.90 a share in 2010.

On top of this potential surge in profits, the stock, which is trading at about 23 times consensus earnings for 2009, has a balance sheet with no debt and $3 a share in cash.  That means that cash is about 20 percent of the stock price.

There is a risk, however.  Novatel was one of the first companies to introduce the now ubiquitous USB plug in modems.  That boosted revenues by 97 percent in 2006, when the product was first introduced.  However, lots of companies played follow the leader and by the end of 2007, this product was a commodity product.  That ate into Novatel's margins and profits.

The CEO of Novatel says that they've learned their lesson from that experience.  Instead of a single product, Novatel will roll out a series of products based on MiFi.  "Our strategy...is to add intelligent applications that provide users with everything from security products to data storage on remote servers."  That should prevent MiFi from joining the dongle as something that Novatel came to market with, only to see it turn into a commodity product.

The case for the stock was compelling enough for us to stake out a position.  We purchased the stock for $12.30, and sold a $12.50 call against it for $0.75.  That brought our effective entry price down to $11.55.  We'll have to sell our position if the stock goes above $12.50 but if that's the case, we'll book our $0.95 gain and move on.

Novatel will release its earnings on October 29 after the close of markets, so it is possible that the stock will surge if the earnings report is strong.  Novatel, as you can tell, is a play on earnings.  In the end, stocks follow their earnings.  And since Novatel is poised to show tremendous earnings growth, the stock should follow.

The other position we entered into yesterday was with ABB.  This was a play on President Obama's announcement of $3.4 billion in grants to improve the electric grid.  ABB, which is headquartered in Switzerland, is poised to benefit from this.  According to its website, they are "
a leader in power and automation technologies that enable utility and industry customers to improve performance while lowering environmental impact."

The company's power systems unit is likely to benefit from a number of factors.  First, there is a push in developed countries to modernize their electric grids.  Some of the eletricity generated is lost during the transmission process as it turns into heat.  In the province of Alberta, for example, transmission losses are expected to cost $220 million CDN

And the aging electric grid is slowing the development of green power.  While there's a lot of wind blowing in plains of Oklahoma, for example, there aren't transmission lines that allow that power to be sent to population centers that need it.  ABB's power systems unit helps solve these problems, and it's likely to see increased sales and profits as a result.

Second, as developing nations start to build electric systems and other infrastructure projects, ABB's expertise is called upon.  In fact, for the first time in the history of the company, developing markets accounted for more revenue than developed nations.

Finally, ABB has other divisions that help companies improve the efficiency of their operations.  With the push towards doing more with less and increasing productivity, this unit is likely to tapped for its expertise.

Add it all up, and it's likely that ABB will be seeing increasing revenues and profits.  And, its services are likely to be in demand regardless of what the economy does.

We entered a position in ABB at $20.63.  We are taking losses today, as the market punishes industrial companies, but ABB is going to be a longer term holding we will buy more if the price drops.

So, we had two plays.  We had a macro play, with ABB.  And we had a micro play, with Novatel.  Even in a down market, there are still trades to be made.
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This page contains a single entry by Buy and Hold Plus published on October 28, 2009 10:47 AM.

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